06/04: A Smooth Ride: Terms of Trade, Volatility and GDP Growth
[ Last Updated 29 October 2007 ]
Short Description
This report analyses the proximate reasons behind New Zealand's recent high, stable terms of trade and then examines (compared with past experience) whether this and earlier terms of trade behaviour explains growth outcomes since 1960.
Author
Arthur Grimes
Released: 14 November 2006
Arthur Grimes is from Motu Economic & Public Policy Research, and University of Waikato. This research was conducted within the Medium Term Strategy Group of the Ministry of Economic Development. Nick Bonner provided admirable assistance through derivation of backdated disaggregated export and import price data using details from New Zealand Yearbooks. Ron Crawford, Richard Fabling and Bob Buckle provided valuable comments on earlier drafts. Neither they, nor the Ministry of Economic Development, are responsible for the views expressed.
Contact: occasionalpapers@med.govt.nz
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