National Cost Benefit Analysis of Proposals to Take Water from the Waitaki River: Final Report

17 November 2004

Sinclair Knight Merz
ABN 37 001 024 095
590 Orrong Road, Armadale 3143
PO Box 2500
Malvern VIC 3144 Australia
Web: Sinclair Knight Merz [external link]

COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Sinclair Knight Merz constitutes an infringement of copyright.

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Waitaki Catchment Locality Plan
• Figure 2: Economic Model Structure
• Figure 3: Schematic Diagram of Hydrology Model
• Figure 4: Selected Population Projections, New Zealand (2001-2021)
• Figure 5: Visitor Counts Oamaru, Omarama and Kurow VICs 2002/2003
• Figure 6: Proportion of National Guest Nights (1991-2003)
• Figure 7: Average Proportion of Guest Nights Sold to International Visitors
• Figure 8: Projected Increase in Planted Area (from Keesing (2002))
• Figure 9: Comparison of Lost Revenue to Meridian Energy
• Figure 10: Supply Curves, Base Case and with Project Aqua
• Figure 11: Demand Response to Decrease in Price

List of Tables

• Table 1: Net Present Value of Options (7.5% Discount Rate, 30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 2 : Net Present Value of Options (10% Discount Rate, 30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 3: Summary of Estimated Environmental, Cultural and Social / Recreational Impacts
• Table 4: Analysis of Impacts
• Table 5: Potential Future Developments for Irrigation
• Table 6: Location of Irrigation Demands
• Table 7: Generation Sequence for Base Case (From Concept Consulting, 2004)
• Table 8: Net Present Value of Options (7.5% Discount Rate, 30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 9: Net Present Value of Options (5% Discount Rate, 30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 10: Net Present Value of Options (10% Discount Rate, 30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 11: Project Aqua Sensitivity Test Results, Net Present Value to the National Economy (7.5%, 30 Years)
• Table 12: Irrigation Sensitivity Test Results, Net Present Value to the National Economy (7.5%, 30 Years)
• Table 13: Irrigation Transition Sensitivity Test Results, Present Value to the National Economy (7.5%, 30 years), No Project Aqua
• Table 14: Irrigation Sensitivity Test Results, Net Present Value to the National Economy (7.5%, 30 Years)
• Table 15: Summary of Environmental Impacts
• Table 16: Summary of Socio Economic Impacts
• Table 17: Net Present Value of Options (7.5% Discount Rate,30 Year Period of Analysis)
• Table 18: Summary of Estimated Environmental and Social / Recreational Impacts
• Table 19: Summary of Current and Proposed Flow Regime in the Waitaki River (Waitaki Dam) and at the Aqua Canal Intake (Sources: URS (2003b); NIWA (2003a)).
• Table 20: Resident Population (2001 Census)
• Table 21: Origin of Anglers (by Target Species), Waitaki River 2002
• Table 22: Fishery Values - New Zealand Case Studies for Significant Rivers
• Table 23: Comparison of Interactions between User Groups
• Table 24: Tourism - Accommodation Statistics
• Table 25: Accommodation Premises - Waitaki Valley v District Totals
• Table 26: Population Impact
• Table 27: Summary of Called in Consents (Where Irrigation Area Specified)
• Table 28: Land Use Transition (ha), South Canterbury
• Table 29: Lower Waitaki Irrigation Area Land Use (ha) (From SKM, 2000)
• Table 30: Existing and Proposed Agricultural Profile (Propn of Total Area)
• Table 31: Typical Annual Irrigation Provided At Workshops (m³/ha/annum)
• Table 32: Annual Irrigation Demands Adopted (m³/ha/annum)
• Table 33: Estimated Annualised Water Takes for Specific Demands (m³/s)
• Table 34: Gross Margin Ranges ($/ha/annum)
• Table 35: Typical Gross Margins - Arable ($/ha/annum)
• Table 36: Investment Costs to Facilitate Transition ($)
• Table 37: Transition to Full Production
• Table 38: Economic Life of Irrigation Scheme Components
• Table 39: Implied Emission Factors Applied to Estimated Stock Counts
• Table 40: Greenhouse Warming Potential
• Table 41: Area Affected by Groundwater Change (from RD Keating, 2003)
• Table 42: Summary of Land Impacts
• Table 43: Land Use - Existing
• Table 44: Land Use Assumptions - Designation
• Table 45: Gross Margins Applied in Model ($/ha/annum)
• Table 46: Canal Placement Economic Impacts (Not Covered in Construction Cost)
• Table 47: Existing Generation Capacity in the Waitaki Basin
• Table 48: Additional Generation Capacity Schedule - Without Project Aqua
• Table 49: Additional Generation Capacity Schedule - With Project Aqua
• Table 50: Capital Investment & Economic Life of New Generation Capacity
• Table 51: Operations and Maintenance Costs - Unit Rates
• Table 52: Summary of Differences in Net Present Value (10%)
• Table 53: Variables Used for Electricity Elasticity of Demand
• Table 54: Estimates of Price Induced Impact to National Economy
• Table 55: Present Value of Project Aqua Under Base Assumptions (7.5%, 30 Years)
• Table 56: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, All Schemes
• Table 57: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Schemes if NPV (5%,30yrs) > 0
• Table 58: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, All Schemes
• Table 59: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Schemes if NPV (5%,30yrs) > 0
• Table 60: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
• Table 61: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Above Tekapo, Project Aqua Installed
• Table 62: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
• Table 63: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua Installed
• Table 64: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
• Table 65: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua Installed
• Table 66: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua
• Table 67: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua and No Integration
• Table 68: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua and Integration
• Table 69: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
• Table 70: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed

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