8. Demand Forecasts
Indicative data rates to deliver community access to broadband access are given for each of the five size categories of Towns. Delivery will require backbone bearer network capacity to the switch (or equivalent), and local access network data capacity. Multiple users may take part of this total broadband capacity.
The MED requested high level forecasts of the indicative data rates or speeds that the towns would require, to satisfy the needs for community access to broadband Internet and data services. This is in addition to the existing demand for individual telephone services and dial up data etc. and any individual demand by specific businesses or residential users for access to dedicated Internet services.
To achieve delivery of this dedicated broadband access capacity it has to be provided in two parts of the network:
- The backbone bearer network from the local switch (or equivalent) to the Internet Service Provider (ISP) or data node
- The local access network from the local switch to the "customer" - an "e-community centre" in a Rural Town, or a number of delivery points in Small Urban Towns.
The capability to satisfy the demand in the backbone bearer network is indicated in the section above. For delivery in the local access network it is assumed at this time that no specific data or broadband infrastructure exists. However, the basic local copper cables are in place, providing telephone services, and could be equipped with xDSL systems.
The estimated aggregated data rate demands in the 2003 timeframe, for each of the size range bands used are:
| Population Range | Category Definition | Number of Towns | Aggregated Broadband Data Rate |
|---|
| 100 - 399 | Rural Town | 39 | 128 kbps |
| 400 - 799 | Rural Town | 56 | 256 kbps |
| 800 - 1,599 | Small Urban Town | 55 | 512 kbps |
| 1,600 - 3,199 | Small Urban Town | 51 | 2 Mbps |
| 3,200 - 9,000 | Small Urban Town | 50 | 8 Mbps |
| Total | | 251 | |
The capacity could be delivered to a single point, or more likely to a number of locations in each community (especially in the Small Urban Towns). For example, the smallest size group of Rural Town identified could take the 128 kbps at a single delivery point, with the capacity used in a "community" location or "e-centre".
In the middle size range, the 512 kbs capacity could be taken by the Small Urban Town community at a single delivery point, or shared over a number of locations by some combination of the capacity (say 4 x 128 kbps, or 2 x 256 kbps). In the case of the two largest range bands, the 2 and 8 Mbps delivered is sufficiently large that the bulk capacity provided to the switch node point could be distributed locally by xDSL or wireless access systems to a number of locations.
Again, there is a gap if all the small schools are used as the basis of the demand. Most are expected to fall into the lowest category demand of 128 kbps.
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