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Costs given in the tables 2 to 8 have learning factors built into them. These take into account the reductions in cost that occur as plants move from the demonstration stage to initial commercialisation (where a few units are built) to full commercialisation (where many plants are built). Technological improvements that are expected to occur such as increased efficiency are also included.

"Low" and "high" technology uptake scenarios have been included to indicate the spread of values with the "expected value" the most likely case.

In the "low" technology uptake scenario, the costs and efficiencies of advanced generating technologies (i.e. Advanced Gas Combined Cycle and Advanced Combustion Turbine) remain at current levels. Learning is applied to the "expected" technology cases. In the "high" technology uptake scenario, efficiencies of advanced fossil generating technologies are based on the United States Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy's Vision 21 programme goals. This scenario represents the upper limits of efficiencies considered to be achievable within the next 15 years.

Vision 21, builds on a portfolio of technologies already being developed, including low-polluting combustion, gasification, high efficiency furnaces and heat exchangers, advanced gas turbines, fuel cells, and fuels synthesis, and adds other critical technologies and system integration techniques.

Capital costs and efficiencies for each of the technologies will be dealt with in turn.

Table 2: Conventional Pulverised Coal/ Fluidised Bed Steam Cycle

Chart 1a

Chart 1b

Table 3: Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle

Chart 2a

Chart 2b

Table 4: Gas Combined Cycle

Chart 3a

Chart 3b

Table 5: Advanced Gas Combined Cycle

Chart 4a

Chart 4b

Table 6: Combustion Turbine

Chart 5a

Chart 5b

Table 7: Advanced Combustion Turbine

Chart 6a

Chart 6b

Table 8: Generic Distributed Generation (Base Loaded)

Technologies represented in this generic Distributed Generation technology include micro turbines, combustion turbines, compression ignition engines and fuel cells.

Distributed Generation (DG) and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) applies to relatively small generating units at or near consumer sites. In CHP costs are shared between heat and electricity. DG technologies cover a range of renewable and thermal plant options.

⁶In the latest AEO 2002 published in December 2001 this efficiency has been revised down to 68.8%.