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6. Voluntary Demand Restraint


Discussion Paper: Options for Government Response to an Oil Supply Disruption

Energy and the Environment Group, Resources and Networks Branch
[ Last Updated 9 July 2008 ]


6.1 This section contains information on potential voluntary demand restraint measures from a study of New Zealand's available demand restraint options.6 In the voluntary phase of a restraint programme, appeals would be made to the public, via an advertising campaign targeting voluntary savings, to reduce demand.

Carpooling

Component Comment
Description Carpooling or ride-sharing policies designed to increase vehicle occupancy and thereby reduce the number of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Policy would be directed at commuters with the types of policies dependent on the nature and extent of the supply emergency. Specific approaches could range between:
  • Encouragement/exhortation to carpool by way of publicity campaigns based on the need to save fuel (increasing fuel prices in themselves could induce commuters to take up more car pooling)
  • Creating carpool only lanes on motorways/sharing with bus only lanes to provide commuters with the benefit of faster trip times. An extra inducement would be to offer benefits such as free or subsidised parking spaces
Legislation required None for voluntary response, although there may be a requirement for some change to the Transport Services Licensing Act 1989 that currently requires licensing of transport services. Some car pooling schemes will fall under this and will not be authorised currently. Regulations covering road use/use of park and ride areas and ability to subsidise designated commercial parking operators for loss of income
Time to implement Based on the need to carefully design each programme specific legislative requirements would set up on an "as needed" basis. However time would be required to convert motorway signage and lanes although this could also be done before hand.
Investment Required Minimal investment for public information campaigns; prepared road signage/lane marking; partial and full subsidy of e.g. parking , with highest cost for direct subsidy
Central/local government Both would need to be involved. Central government would need to coordinate the publicity campaign plus establishment of car lanes (if appropriate) on State Highways. Local government would need to be involved in assigning car pool lanes on local roads.
Information Communication Comprehensive information campaign (all media advertising combined with Internet based information sharing to match rides with commuters, e.g. using Carpool New Zealand website or carshare.co.nz website)
Perverse Outcomes Potential incentives to encourage commuters away from public transport alternatives, undermining public transport Potential for greater distances to be travelled picking up car-poolers
Expected Costs Part of total communications plan budget. Additional costs for signage and local publicity of car-pool lanes
Expected Benefits 1.2% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits Will require some time for individuals to associate with others to achieve car pooling. Is likely to take 2-3 weeks to achieve targeted reductions.
Effectiveness over short/long term Effectiveness likely to increase gradually as behavioural responses adjust to persuasion/exhortation to more valuable financial incentives
Effectiveness for severity of disruption Probably best if used for specific events rather than always encouraged. Success may depend on altruism of commuters to respond to crisis, although crisis itself may increase price which will add to response

Telecommuting

Component Comment
Description In an emergency telecommuting can be encouraged as a way to avoid journeys and save fuel. While there are employer issues such as management of employees who telecommute some of these concerns might be set aside in an emergency situation. Telecommuting is only feasible for the proportion of the population whose work allows such a change. New Zealand has some experience of increase in telecommuting during the Auckland Power Crisis in 1998.
Legislation required None
Time to implement Public Information Campaign - could be available in advance.
Investment Required Will be more effective if there is greater access to computers and broadband services at homes.
Central/local government Both to encourage
Information Communication Need Public Information Campaign. May also to have prior discussions with employer groups to see how they might assist in a campaign and what issues are important for them.
Perverse Outcomes Data shows that telecommuters normally increase other travel offsetting the benefits of the work trip saving. This effect has been built into the savings assumption although we would expect it to be low in an emergency situation compared to normal telecommuting.
Expected Costs Cost of Public Information Campaign.7
Expected Benefits 0.4% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits It would take some time for people to organise their work so they could telecommute. We would expect that it would be two weeks at least before the full benefits would be achieved.
Effectiveness over short/long term Telecommuting is likely to be more effective in the short term as over the long-term issues over management of employees is likely to become more significant. We would expect the benefits to start reducing after one month although there could be some long-term benefits from some employers/employees permanently changing work structures.
Effectiveness for severity of disruption Telecommuting should be effective for any severity of disruption.

Tyre Pressure

Component Comment
Description Vehicles are more fuel efficient when their tyres are at optimal pressure. Optimal pressure reduces rolling resistance. Studies have found that on average the tyres of vehicle fleets are under pressure by on average about 3 PSI. A campaign to encourage people to have the correct pressure will save fuel.
Legislation required None
Time to implement Public information Campaign - could be available in advance.
Investment Required None
Central/local government Own vehicles
Information Communication Need Public Information Campaign. May also need to have preparations in place with petroleum retailers because of the expected upsurge in use of tyre filling facilities.
Perverse Outcomes People fill their tanks because they visit service stations
Expected Costs Cost of Public Information Campaign
Expected Benefits 1.4% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits The public information campaign will take time to build up and not everyone will be able to adjust their tyre pressure immediately. We assume that the savings build up to the full amount over the two weeks following the campaign introduction.
Effectiveness over short/long term This would be expected to be more effective over the short term although once tyres are inflated correctly the benefit should remain for a reasonable period. Over the longer term the campaign may need to be reprised to continue the emphasis.
Effectiveness for severity of disruption As the consumer gets a benefit this campaign should be applicable for any sort of disruption event.

Compressed/Flexible Work Week

Component Comment
Description Compressed or flexible work weeks are designed to reduced the number of trips per week or avoid travel in peak times reducing congestion (both vehicle and public transport). Compressed work weeks have the most benefit in an emergency situation as actual trips are saved. Generally the 4/40 (working normal 40 hours per week in four days rather than five) is the most popular of the compressed work week options.
Legislation required None (but a policy of encouraging employers to be flexible is needed)
Time to implement Public Information Campaign - coordination with employers and employer groups.
Investment Required None
Central/local government To act as examples
Information Communication Need Public Information Campaign. May also need to have prior discussions with employer groups to see how they might assist in a campaign and what issues are important for them.
Perverse Outcomes Data shows that no-work travel increases on the off work day partially offsetting the benefits. This effect has been built into the savings assumption although one would expect it to be low in an emergency situation as opposed to normal compressed weeks.
Expected Costs Cost of Public Information Campaign
Expected Benefits 0.2% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits It would take some time for employers and employees to organise the work so compressed weeks were an option. We would expect that it would be two weeks before the full benefits would be achieved.
Effectiveness over short/long term A compressed working week is likely to be more effective in the short term as, over the long-term, work organisation and structure are likely to become more significant issues. We would expect the benefits to start reducing after two months although there could be some long-term benefits from some employers/employees permanently changing work structures.
Effectiveness for severity of disruption Reduced working weeks should be effective for any severity of disruption although there will be better employer buy in for international events rather than local.

Encouragement to use more fuel efficient car

Component Comment
Description New Zealand has a high proportion of households with more than one car. This creates an opportunity to save fuel by encouraging households to use the more fuel efficient car more frequently or for the longer journeys.
Legislation required None
Time to implement Public information campaign - could be available in advance.
Investment Required None
Central/local government None
Information Communication Need Public Information Campaign.
Perverse Outcomes None
Expected Costs Cost of Public Information Campaign
Expected Benefits 0.43% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits We would estimate the PIC to have effect over the following x weeks so by x weeks after the campaign began the full savings would be occurring.
Effectiveness over short/long term This measure will be more effective over the short term as over the longer term people would be expected to return to their normal behaviour and use of vehicles.
Effectiveness for severity of disruption The measure will be most effective when there is public support for measures although it should be applicable to all disruptions.

Drop Some Unnecessary Trips

Component Comment
Description Many trips that are made, particularly for recreational purposes, are discretionary and could be dropped altogether, e.g. weekend outings.
Legislation required None
Time to implement Public information campaign - could be available in advance.
Investment Required None
Central/local government Local government could provide more local entertainment to discourage long trips
Information Communication Need Public Information Campaign.
Perverse Outcomes None
Expected Costs Cost of Public Information Campaign
Expected Benefits 2.2% saving in aggregate oil demand
Time to achieve benefits Benefits could be achieved relatively quickly in response to Public Information Campaign
Effectiveness over short/long term Could be effective over short term, but long term people would be unwilling to continue to displace trips.
Effectiveness for severity of disruption The measure will be most effective when there is public support for measures although it should be applicable to all disruptions. Many people doing this could be reinforcing, e.g. people would recreate together locally.

Areas for Feedback

This section contains information on potential voluntary demand restraint measures from a study of New Zealand's available demand restraint options.8 The Ministry of Economic Development welcomes feedback on the measures presented in this section



6 Oil Demand Restraint Options for New Zealand, Covec and Hale & Twomey, June 2005.

7 There may also be costs to businesses in establishing the necessary systems for telecommuting and potentially also a loss in productivity.

8 Oil Demand Restraint Options for New Zealand, Covec and Hale & Twomey, June 2005.



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