5. NextStages
5.1 Introduction
This paper has considered:
- A more detailed investigation of sectoral composition and educational attainment of the workforce, based on 2001 data, and the extent to which these might contribute to the higher levels of productivity observed in the CBD.
- An investigation of the ways in which the models used to explain and predict agglomeration impacts might be improved, particularly for advanced business services, which are considered to form the key components of urban agglomeration.
To follow up on this work, two further strands of work have been identified as the next components (Phase 3) of the on-going work programme.
5.2 Programme of Work
1. Temporal Analysis
Because of limitations in the data available at the commencement of this study, initial attention was concentrated on the position for 2001 and the analysis was based on cross-sectional relationships identified in Auckland and the Auckland region for that year. However, agglomeration is a dynamic factor and with the increasing availability of information from the 2006 Census, there is an opportunity to extend the current analysis to consider changes over time between 2001 and 2006. This would add to our understanding of the key issues and drivers. We also have databases covering census data for 1991 and 1996 and could therefore extend the analysis backwards over time if required. However, it is probably the changes in more recent years which are of the most immediate interest.
We would therefore propose to undertake comparisons of 2001 and 2006 data that consider:
- Changes in accessibility levels within the urban areas within the Auckland Region.
- Changes in employment by sector for the Auckland CBD, Auckland City and selected areas elsewhere in the Region.
- Changes in productivity/average earnings for the Auckland CBD, Auckland City and selected areas elsewhere in the Region.
- Changes in output and GDP for the Auckland CBD, Auckland City and other cities and districts within the Region.
- Changes in educational attainment for the Auckland CBD, Auckland City and selected areas elsewhere in the Region.
- The exploration of relationships which aimed to identify the contributions from these factors and other factors to economic growth, both in the CBD and more generally within the Auckland Region.
This work would seek to combine the results from the cross-sectional analyses with those from the temporal analyses, to provide a deeper understanding of the factors contributing to the agglomeration process within Auckland.
This work could also advance the initial analysis undertaken in the Phase 2 work of the relationships between total employment or business employment as a driver of business earnings, the multivariate analysis of the drivers of agglomeration and would investigate in more detail the relative importance of localisation or urbanisation economies to which this may give some preliminary insights.
2. Market Research into the Drivers and Consequences of Agglomeration
The second component of the proposed work programme seeks to understand at a detailed level, the drivers of agglomeration based on the experience of firms relocating to or expanding in the CBD and other key centres within the Auckland Region. By talking to the firms themselves, we would aim to address a range of issues for which analysis of statistical information provides only partial insights and no clear indication/understanding of causality. The questions that this would seek to address would include:
- The reasons why firms have chosen to relocate to a new (central) location.
- What benefits they expected to achieve from this and their importance, particularly including:
- Benefits of bringing together staff in a single location.
- Benefits of access to a larger work-force.
- Benefits from improved access to suppliers.
- Benefits from improved access to customers or transport routes.
- The extent to which these might contribute to improved levels of productivity and output for the firm.
- Other particular factors.
- For staff employed, the numbers that are relocated and the number of new jobs created.
- The extent to which the anticipated benefits as identified above have been achieved in practice and whether the exercise was regarded as successful.
By considering firm relocation into the CBD and other key centres, it may be possible to identify some measure of the potential benefits of locating in a strong employment centre.
Building on the work already undertaken, the two strands of work identified in this section would considerably enhance our understanding of agglomeration and its key drivers and impacts. It would also inform policy development, aimed at enhancing productivity in the leading edges of the economy, while contributing towards the policy objectives set out in Auckland's economic transformation agenda.
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