8. Achieving the Potential Changes in Density
The approach set out above identifies a way of estimating the potential changes in land-use and economic activity that would be stimulated as the result of improvements to transport accessibility. However, these changes will not necessarily be achieved in practice without other supporting and complementary measures.
As an example increases in the accessibility to the CBD would, according to the model developed, result in increased potential employment in the area. However, for this potential employment to be achieved, at a minimum there would need to be places for the additional workers, and increased office space would need to be made available. Unless there was vacant space which could be used, this would require additional space to be made available of which all or part would typically be in new buildings. In turn for these to be provided, there would need to be potential space for development and a planning regime which would facilitate the provision of the additional space. It is likely that even with a supportive development environment the provision of additional space would only take place over a number of years and it would be some time before the potential was achieved. Without a supporting environment, the full potential of the increases in productivity and economic output may not be achieved or may only be achieved over an extended timetable.
Shortages of appropriate skills in the labour force may also act to restrain the achievement of the full potential. Positive action through training or through the encouragement of immigration may be required to overcome these constraints.
Transport accessibility can therefore be regarded as a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve increases in economic output. Other measures possibly involving a range of agencies are likely to be necessary if the full benefits are to be achieved.
Given the range and nature of the potential changes that may be required if higher densities are achieved, it is likely that these will take place relatively slowly. There may be a number of players involved in the process and if the provision of new office capacity is required, this can only take place over a number of years. However for major increases in accessibility which themselves can only be achieved over a number of years, as might be the case with major public transport improvements, there may be a degree of anticipatory development which would reduce the period of adjustment after the increase in accessibility is achieved.
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