4. Data and Hypotheses
Our data are obtained from Statistics New Zealand's Longitudinal Business Database (LBD). This longitudinal database (described more fully in Fabling et al, 2007) links a number of official surveys of, and administrative and tax data on, the universe of New Zealand firms.23 Tax data are available relating to GST (value added tax), and IR4 and IR10 (company and self-employed) returns. Data from LEED (Linked Employee-Employer Database, that utilises employee PAYE and employer tax data) aggregated to the firm level are linked into LBD. These financial data are supplemented by data from Statistics New Zealand's Annual Enterprise Survey and other Statistics New Zealand surveys (sampled from the Business Frame).
One further administrative data source that forms part of LBD is the Customs New Zealand database on merchandise exports and imports. As described in Fabling and Sanderson (2007), this source provides detail on individual firms' exports and imports by country and by commodity (detailed Harmonised System [HS] codes) on a daily basis. From March 2004 onwards, all Customs data have been captured electronically. Electronic capture began in the 1990s, but initially incorporated only a small percentage of transactions (and of value). The share captured electronically trended upward over the intervening period, reaching three-quarters of all transactions in July 2002, although the increase was not monotonic.
Where the data have been captured electronically, firms must detail the currency of denomination of the export. Thus we can ascertain currency of denomination by country of export. Further, where the currency of denomination is not NZD, firms must record whether they have hedged the currency exposure into NZD. If they have done so, they must record the hedged currency rate which is used to record the NZD value of merchandise trade.24 These categories are not available where the data were captured manually.
Less complete data are available for firm imports. For each firm, we can ascertain country, currency of trade, and commodity of imports, but not hedging practices. Nevertheless, the import data can be used to ascertain whether firms that import follow the same currency hedging practices for their exports as do non-importers, so testing whether imports play a role as a natural hedge.
The relevant data are available longitudinally for all New Zealand merchandise exporters. In (calendar) 2005, for instance, the number of firms that were reported as merchandise exporters totalled 10,541. This represented roughly 2% of firms considered economically active that year.25 We aggregate the Customs data to monthly frequency and utilise data from August 1997 to February 2007, being the full period for which we can obtain comparable data.
Our research goal is to model hedging decisions at the individual exporter (unit record) level. We aim to use the unit record data to test a range of hypotheses, derived from the surveyed literature, regarding both optimal hedging and selective hedging behaviour. The current paper is a precursor to that analysis. We present a range of descriptive statistics, derived from various aggregations of the individual firm data, that shed light on a number of aspects of hedging behaviour. The empirical section of the paper further examines the practice of selective hedging by New Zealand exporters.
Questions regarding hedging behaviour that we address in this paper are as follows:
Q1. What are the shares of exports denominated in different currencies? We address this question both for shares of the number of individual transactions (termed ‘lines' in the Customs data) and for shares of total fob export value. Further, we split the currency denomination shares by country of destination.26
Q2. What percentage of total foreign currency exports, Australian dollar (AUD) exports and United States dollar (USD) exports are hedged (over time)?27
Q3. What is the relationship between the hedged rates of exchange (for AUD and USD) to the current spot exchange rates at the time of export? What does this imply about the likely hedging term that is observed?
Q4. How does hedging behaviour vary by sector?
Q5. How does hedging behaviour vary by firm size?
Q6. How does hedging behaviour vary by export intensity of the firm?
Q7. How does hedging behaviour change over time in relation to levels of (a) the exchange rate, and (b) forward points (represented by the interest rate differential between short term New Zealand dollar interest rates and the short rates of the other currency)? Specifically we address the hypotheses that: (a) the hedge ratio for a currency exposure increases when the NZD is low relative to historical norms against that currency; and (b) the hedge ratio for a currency exposure increases when the forward points relative to that currency increases (i.e. when New Zealand short rates increase relative to the rates in that country).
Questions 1-4 are primarily descriptive of hedging practices while questions 5 and 6 relate to hypotheses derived from optimal hedging theory; each of these questions is addressed in section 5. Question 7 relates primarily to theories of selective hedging. This issue is examined in detail in section 6.
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