2. Introduction
This outlook for electricity dry year security of supply completely updates the first security outlook published in December 2002.
These outlooks are designed to make information on the future security of supply risks widely available. For this outlook, two scenarios were developed by ELL and discussed with the MED to evaluate the supply risks facing the New Zealand electricity industry over the next four years.
A base line scenario was developed with compound demand growth of 2.0% pa starting from the 2002/2003 year as base. A number of key assumptions about generator availability and demand growth were made. A scenario assuming higher demand growth of 2.5% pa has also been modelled.
The modelling period spans 1 April 2004 through 31 March 2008.
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