Introduction
New Zealand's population has changed dramatically over the past century.
At the beginning of the 20th century the population numbered 800,000. Children (under 15 years) outnumbered older people (those aged over 64) by eight to one. The life expectancy of a new-born child was about 60 years. Māori made up five percent of the population. Immigrants made up about one-third of population growth. Immigrants were mostly from the United Kingdom. More people lived in rural areas than in towns and cities.
At the beginning of the 21st century, the population numbers approximately four million. Children outnumber older people by a ratio of two to one. A newborn child can expect to live nearly 80 years. Māori make up nearly 15 percent of the population. While net migration still accounts for around one third of population growth, migrant sources are markedly more diverse. We are highly urbanised.
Our population has an older age structure, is ethnically more diverse, and is likely to live in smaller but more complex family structures, in urban areas in the North Island, and be highly mobile.
During the 20th century, New Zealand experienced steady population growth. The period 1946 to 1976 saw the highest growth. The population reached one million in 1908, two million in 1952 and three million in 1973.
The main influences on New Zealand's population over coming decades are the ongoing impact of the large cohorts born between 1943 and 1973, further increases in life expectancy, a continuing reduction in the average number of children born to each woman of childbearing age (the fertility rate), different ethnic population trends, and migration flows. The size and composition of the population are major influences on a country's ability to create wealth, the range of industries it can support, the pool of talent that can be called on, the strength of communities and the structure of government spending. Therefore, the make-up of a country's population is a key factor in choosing and sustaining a development path.
For example:
- a young population provides more new entrants to the labour market than an older population
- young people with families have significantly different patterns of consumption and saving from older people
- different ethnic groups may have different social and cultural values in relation to education, family structures, income distribution within households, social interactions and lifestyles
- a relatively young population requires investment in public health, schools, a housing stock that meets the needs of children, and childcare, while a relatively older population requires investment in individual health, a housing stock that recognises greater disability, and high returns from savings.
These influences are not one-way. Economic, social and environmental performance have a strong influence on people's choices about having children, life expectations, migration decisions and the type of education and training in which to invest.
A Sustainable Development Approach
Sustainable development is a means to an end. It is an approach to decision-making, not an ideal outcome or final achievement. The starting point for sustainable development is the internationally recognised definition of: "…development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."1
Adopting a sustainable development approach to population requires a long-term perspective. It means addressing all potential consequences of actions. Issues include the consequences of the size and composition of the population, including linkages to quality of life, economic development and environmental enhancement. They include the need to give opportunities for development to people of all ages, now and in the future.
This expands any discussion about population to include our ability to adjust to a growing or shrinking population, where we live and the quality of that life, what we consume and what we produce, and the impact that human activities have on the natural environment.
Each of these topics is worthy of a report in its own right. This report cannot cover any of these issues in depth.
The Role of Policy
In the past, the Government was faced with population issues - such as high fertility and migration - that could, in theory, be influenced by policy. The traditional definition of an active approach to population is "…all deliberate government actions intended to influence population growth, size, distribution and composition".2 Governments today operate in a different environment, and face issues, such as ageing, that are not amenable to the approaches used in the past.
Key policies are those aimed at the needs of different age groups and subpopulations, and at matters such as human capital, social capital, mobility and the changing nature of work. Consideration of population must also take into account broader issues, such as the impact of international events on local regions, and co-ordination between government and non-government sectors.
Purpose
This report provides a broad discussion around the interaction between population and sustainable development in New Zealand. Our aims are to inform policy-makers, stimulate public discussion, and provide input into the government's sustainable development strategy.
The report does not explore whether there is a desirable population size for New Zealand. Nor does it attempt to develop specific policy solutions. The Population and Sustainable Development report is based around the following key questions:
- how will the size and composition of the New Zealand population change over the next 50 years?
- what are the key factors that will affect changes in population size and composition?
- where will people live and what will influence their decision to move or stay?
- what are the consequences of these trends for the economy, society and the environment?
- what is the role of the Government in all this? The first section provides an overview of population trends and projections of the future.
The second section examines the implications of these population trends for sustainable development.
The report ends with some broad conclusions about the population issues we face.
Unless otherwise stated, data in the report is sourced from Statistics New Zealand.
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