6. Computers on the Internet
The data presented in this and the next section covers the number of hosts (computers) permanently connected to the Internet in New Zealand, and the size of the New Zealand domain which is a measure of the number of organisations connected.
The data for this section is derived from the results of a survey undertaken every six months by Network Wizards. The full survey results are available on that company's web server at http://www.nw.com.
The number of "hosts" (computers) on the Internet is often regarded as a measure of the number of people with access to the Internet. To be counted as a host, a computer must have its own Internet address and be permanently and directly connected to the Internet. Home or small business computers which connect by dialling up to a service provider are therefore not counted. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that there are more users than hosts, possibly by a factor of two or more. To stress this point: the information in this paper refers to the number of computers permanently wired into the Internet in New Zealand, it does not purport to describe directly the number of individuals using the Internet. Figures relating to Internet users and usage should be treated with caution due to the evolving nature of the Internet, the variety of ways it can be accessed and the difficulty in gathering reliable data.
Over the last three years, information collected by Network Wizards has become less reliable because an increasing proportion of organisations now restrict access to their domain data. Because of this, Network Wizards introduced a new survey technique in July 1997. The old survey method counted the number of domain names that had IP addresses assigned to them. The new survey method used in January 1998 counts the number of IP addresses that have been assigned a name. This distinction is subtle but it does mean the new survey is counting something different from the old survey. Network Wizards have provided `adjusted' host counts for earlier years of the survey to enable comparisons to be made. For a full explanation of the changes visit the Network Wizards web site at <www.nw.com>.
A more serious problem with collecting this information is due to an increasing trend for corporate networks to be screened off from the Internet behind firewalls. This means that a private network with hundreds or even thousands of computers may appear to the outside world as just one or two host computers. Unfortunately, the new methodology employed by Network Wizards does nothing to overcome the problem of networks being screened behind firewalls.
The following graph shows the growth in the number of hosts connected to the Internet in New Zealand, as well as the number connected worldwide, from July 1991 through to January 1999. A line has been added showing the revised total host counts for the earlier surveys. This line indicates the new survey method finds more hosts than the old method for the earlier surveys.
The straight rising lines on this logarithmic graph tell the same story as the exponential curve usually seen on graphs of growth of the Internet. By using the logarithmic scale both curves can be plotted on the same graph, despite the substantial difference in the actual numbers.
The graph shows a significant jump in the number of Internet hosts worldwide since January 1995, continuing through to January 1999. This growth continues to follow an exponential curve. The number of hosts in New Zealand also increased rapidly until 1996 but appears to have reached a plateau at just under 178,000 in 1996 and 1997, with a dramatic drop over the past year.
As other information detailed below shows, the use of the Internet in New Zealand is continuing to increase rapidly and this apparent decrease in host numbers indicates that this is no longer a particularly useful measure of Internet activity in New Zealand. The reason for this apparent decline is not clear but it may be due at least in part to the growing use of firewalls which screen the actual number of computers on corporate Intranets from external scrutiny, and thus represents a maturation of the use of the Internet in New Zealand.
The following two charts show relative statistics for ten countries with the highest Internet host counts by population. The first is based, as with the above chart, on Network Wizards statistics up to and including January 1999, and the second on OECD figures for July 1998. Despite the different basis for the statistics, the same ten countries are involved.
The chart below shows changes in the number of hosts per 1000 people since January 1996. Like Finland, Iceland and Norway, until very recently New Zealand showed very strong growth in numbers of hosts per 1000 people but now appears to have reached a plateau, in fact, in New Zealand's case there has been a very significant drop over the past six months. This also was seen last year with both the US and Australia, and Finland also has experienced a small fall. As explained earlier, the significance of this phenomenon is not clear but it does indicate that some caution is required in interpreting these figures.
The following chart is based on OECD data as of July 1998 and shows the same ten countries. It differs in one significant respect from information presented in previous reports in that it includes information about the apparent number of hosts in each country registered in the "generic" Top Level Domains (gTLDs).
Information presented in previous reports has been based on the assumption that, except for the US, the number of hosts registered in the gTLDs could be neglected for comparative purposes, relying solely on registrations in the country code Top Level Domains (ccTLDs). Examples of the latter are .nz for New Zealand (see Section 7.1), .au for Australia and .ca for Canada. The chart shows both the ccTLD and gTLD host counts for each country.
Inclusion of the gTLDs alters the relative ordering, but not the membership, of the top ten group of countries. Compared with the ccTLD-based statistics from the last report, New Zealand has moved from fifth into seventh place and Australia from sixth into ninth. Two countries with a proportionately large number of hosts registered in the gTLDs, Canada and Sweden, have moved ahead of New Zealand, and another, Denmark, ahead of Australia. Note that the position of the US is unchanged because previously it was assumed that the majority of the gTLDs were US-based registrations anyway.
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