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Appendix 3: Pandemic Management Phase - Standard Planning Assumptions


Planning Guide for Infrastructure Providers

Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Transport
[ Last Updated 27 January 2006 ]


These planning assumptions are produced for planning purposes only. Planning assumptions deliberately represent extremes and are not predictions.

Workforce

This appendix models the potential impact of a large severe pandemic influenza wave on the workforce. The basic scenario is that of November 1918. This differs from earlier published New Zealand scenarios which were based on lower infection and death rates as observed in the 1968 pandemic.

Assumptions

  • 15% of the workforce is absent for 8 weeks because school closures oblige working parents to stay home and look after children. Note that this proportion will vary according the particular workforce.
  • 40% of those remaining at work become ill at some time during the 8 weeks of the pandemic wave.
  • The workplace attack wave follows a pattern similar to that expected in the general population.
  • Every person who becomes ill has 7 shifts off work.
  • There is a 100% additional absence rate - that is, for every person in the remaining workforce who gets ill, another does not come to work because of the need to look after a spouse or children, or a disinclination to travel or work.
  • The additional absences follow the workplace attack pattern.
  • 2% of workers who become ill die.
  • Note that no estimate is made for people doing extra shifts or longer shifts, or for any recruitment into the workforce during the pandemic.

Individual employers must consider their workforces and their particular circumstances. However, in general, employers should make contingency plans to operate for the pandemic period with at most 85% of their normal staff available, and between 50% and 65% available for the peak three weeks of the pandemic.

Total attack rate 50% over 8 weeks, using Fluaid model

Total attack rate 50% over 8 weeks, using Fluaid model
→ Total attack rate 50% over 8 weeks, using Fluaid model [10 KB GIF]

It is important to note that the scenario shown above will not develop suddenly. A large pandemic wave cannot develop in New Zealand without significant numbers (some hundreds to thousands) of human cases having been present in New Zealand for some time. Workforce planners should note that impacts from school closures might be felt for some time before the above scenario develops.

Population: People Becoming Ill

This table shows the number of people who would become ill during a 40% attack rate pandemic wave affecting the general population.

This is essentially the November 1918 pandemic wave applied to the current New Zealand population. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest 10 where number of illnesses are less than 1,000, and to the nearest hundred for larger numbers.

Illnesses
DHB Week no
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Auckland 1,700 8,700 41,800 55,700 41,800 13,900 7,000 3,500
Bay of Plenty 800 4,000 19,200 25,500 19,200 6,400 3,200 1,600
Canterbury 1,900 9,300 44,600 59,500 44,600 14,900 7,400 3,700
Capital and Coast 1,100 5,400 26,000 34,600 26,000 8,700 4,300 2,200
Counties Manukau 1,700 8,700 41,700 55,600 41,700 13,900 7,000 3,500
Hawkes Bay 600 3,000 14,400 19,200 14,400 4,800 2,400 1,200
Hutt Valley 550 2,800 13,300 17,700 13,300 4,400 2,200 1,100
Lakes 410 2,100 9,900 13,200 9,900 3,300 1,600 820
Midcentral 660 3,300 15,900 21,200 15,900 5,300 2,700 1,300
Nelson Marlborough 540 2,700 12,900 17,200 12,900 4,300 2,200 1,100
Northland 590 3,000 14,200 19,000 14,200 4,700 2,400 1,200
Otago 720 3,600 17,400 23,200 17,400 5,800 2,900 1,400
South Canterbury 220 1,100 5,200 6,900 5,200 1,700 860 430
Southland 430 2,200 10,400 13,800 10,400 3,500 1,700 860
Tairawhiti 180 900 4,300 5,800 4,300 1,400 720 360
Taranaki 420 2,100 10,100 13,500 10,100 3,400 1,700 840
Waikato 1,400 6,800 32,600 43,400 32,600 10,900 5,400 2,700
Wairarapa 160 790 3,800 5,000 3,800 1,300 630 310
Waitemata 2,000 9,900 47,600 63,500 47,600 15,900 7,900 4,000
West Coast 120 610 2,900 3,900 2,900 970 490 240
Whanganui 260 1,300 6,200 8,300 6,200 2,100 1,000 520
All DHBs 16,400 82,100 394,300 525,700 394,300 131,400 65,700 32,800
Total 1,643,000

Population: Deaths

This table shows the number of people who would die during a 40% attack rate pandemic wave with a 2% case fatality rate.

This is essentially the November 1918 pandemic wave applied to the current New Zealand population. Rounding has been applied.

Deaths
DHB Week no
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Auckland 35 170 840 1,120 840 280 140 70
Bay of Plenty 16 80 380 510 380 130 64 32
Canterbury 37 190 890 1,190 890 300 150 74
Capital and Coast 22 110 520 690 520 170 87 43
Counties Manukau 35 170 830 1,110 830 280 140 69
Hawkes Bay 12 60 290 380 290 96 48 24
Hutt Valley 11 55 270 350 270 88 44 22
Lakes 8 41 200 260 200 66 33 16
Midcentral 13 66 320 420 320 110 53 26
Nelson Marlborough 11 54 260 350 260 86 43 22
Northland 12 59 290 380 290 95 47 24
Otago 14 72 350 460 350 120 58 29
South Canterbury 4 22 100 140 100 34 17 9
Southland 9 43 210 280 210 69 35 17
Tairawhiti 4 18 87 120 87 29 14 7
Taranaki 8 42 200 270 200 68 34 17
Waikato 27 140 650 870 650 220 110 54
Wairarapa 3 16 75 100 75 25 13 6
Waitemata 40 200 950 1,270 950 320 160 79
West Coast 2 12 59 78 59 20 10 5
Whanganui 5 26 120 170 120 41 21 10
All DHBs 330 1,640 7,890 10,510 7,890 2,630 1,310 660
Total 33,000

Note: In practice, it is quite likely that the peaks of illnesses and deaths would be slightly staggered between districts, as a wave moves around the country. It is also possible that the movement of a wave could be stalled for a short time at major regional boundaries, or between the North and South Islands.


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