5. Conclusions and Recommendations
A substantial renewable resource is available for electricity generation or heat supply.
Best estimates have been given for real opportunities, helped by the fact that to a large extent the technologies and resources for development are well established/well researched.
Assumptions have been made regarding resource availability and consentability, of plant "buildability" and of the limiting uptake rate for the various technologies. Cost projections have been checked across a range of research and physical projects. These assumptions have been based on the experience of the reviewers with relevant sections of the report being cross-checked by expert groups (New Zealand Geothermal Association, Bioenergy Association of New Zealand, Solar Industries Association) or by authors of recent industry reports (covering hydro, wind, solar hot water and photovoltaics) though opinions may differ.
Assessed available resources are considerably increased in a more liberal consenting environment (associated with a shift from "high" to "medium" confidence assessments).
The unit cost of renewable technologies is more strongly influenced by capital cost than the unit cost of fossil fuel plant, for which fuel has the major influence. As all major plant is imported, reduced value of the New Zealand dollar will penalise renewable plant (with lesser effect on hydro) over fossil fuel plant.
Utilisation of these resources could help New Zealand towards Kyoto Protocol goals, provided adequate investment incentives are available at a commercial level.
While global environmental concerns are helping to focus attention on renewable energy sources as a potential solution, these same resources face strong environmental constraints/opposition at the regional level. In some cases, National Policy Statements could be required to give Regional Councils a new framework for decisions. Developers observe that it is far easier to obtain resource consents (and there is less public opposition) for Combined Cycle Gas Turbines than for hydro or geothermal developments.
Given uncertainties in the heat market size, there could be benefit in undertaking research into both heat and electricity demand on both a regional and sectorial basis.
There is clear evidence that renewable resources can provide heat at competitive prices.
Investment in renewables can be supported by the Government's policies (including through the implementation of the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy), and its continued strategic investment in research (through FRST), as well as through its information dissemination activities (by the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry for the Environment, the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, etc).
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