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Appendix B: Summary of Power Generation Options


Power Generation Options for New Zealand

Sinclair Knight Merz Limited
[ Last Updated 18 January 2006 ]


Basis of Cost Estimates

The cost estimates contained in the following table are generic, based on typical industry indices. The costs given provide a measure of comparative costs of different generation options and reflect the following assumptions:

All costs are in 2003 dollars and at a NZ$/US$ exchange rate of 0.55.

Capital costs include all capital plant items and control equipment up to the generator circuit breakers.

Capital costs do not include switchyard or transmission costs downstream of the generator circuit breakers.

Capital and O&M costs do not include establishment, corporate or up-front regulatory costs.

Costs per kWh include fuel costs for fossil-fuel-fired plants, and make-up drilling costs for geothermal.

Costs per kWh take into account typical load factors for non-thermal plant (hydro, geothermal and wind). For thermal plant, where the load factors may be very low (but cannot realistically be predicted) for peaking plant, they take into account fuel and O&M costs but just assume the capital cost is recovered at 10% per annum without taking into account financing costs.

For the non-thermal plant, the costs per kWh are the long-term prices at which the projects are considered to be viable. They do therefore take into account project financing and profit, but as stated above do not include up-front establishment costs that could be significant in a full financial analysis.

Summary

Potential Generation Capacity to 2005

Graphic of "Potential Generation Capacity to 2005"

Potential MW (Ignoring Time Required for Normal Consent Process)
Year
On-Line
w/o RMA
Sub-
total
Geo­ther­malIn­dige­nous
Gas
Co­gen­era­tionWindHydroEmer­gency
Gener­ators
Gas /
Dis­tillate
Tur­bines
Com­bined
Cycle
Gas
Tur­bines6
200364010116.58.504764200
2004460146602036002000
20059301251540155150040400
20066207500014400400
2007270150000117000
20084900000485000
20092600000262000
Total
(approx MW)
3670        
Potential MW (Assuming Normal Consent Process)
Year
On-Line
w/o RMA
Sub-
total
Geo­ther­malIn­dige­nous
Gas
Co­gen­era­tionWindHydroEmer­gency
Gener­ators
Gas /
Dis­tillate
Tur­bines
Com­bined
Cycle
Gas
Tur­bines7
200390008.5047600
200464065116.5036004200
20059007175605500240400
2006720270015014400400
200712020000100000
2008220103000117000
20092600000262000
201056075000485000
Total
(approx MW)
3510        

 

Ref.OpportunityPo­ten­tial
Capa­city
(MW)
Ann.
Out­put8
(GWh)
Time to On-LineYear
On-Line
Ease of Est.
1 = easy
5 = dif­fi­cult 
Cap­ital
Cost
$m
O&M
 Cost
p.a.
$m
Est. Cost9
c/kWh
Con­straints
(Low-Med-High
+ = pos. envir. benefit)
with RMA
mon­ths
w/o RMA
mon­ths
with RMAw/o RMARMAFuel /
 Reso­urce
Trans­mis­sionEn­vir­on­men­tal
1Poihipi Geothermal - immediate option1080>60 ?020122003100.2<1M 0L
2Emergency Generators - Auckland401303-412003200310 15    
3Emergency Generators- Wellington16653-412003200310 15    
4Emergency Generators - Christchurch20803-412003200310 15    
5Te Rapa Dairy - cogen3.5273-61-32003200310.1 5-10N/aHLL
6Mangahao Hydro (committed)4522200320031com­mit­ted 6    
7Auckland Hospital Cogen (committed)54066200320031com­mit­ted 5-6    
8Southdown 4035-706-932004200314015-10    
9Otahuhu A (Double ending)5044-906-932004200315-100.515    
10Degussa, Gas engine1.5126-932004200312.50.156-13LLLL
11Stranded Gas Total - gas engines - various sites605006-93-420042003276 6-13    
12LandFill Gas total - gas engines - various sites252006-93-620042003218 5-10    
13Sewage Gas/Biogas - various locations201506-93-620042003230 5-10    
14Gas Turbines (Whirinaki or elsewhere) 2003200175-3506-93-4200420031see App A 15-25    
15Power Barge907006-94-620042003120-60 15-25    
16Kawerau GT4035-706-93-620042003245115-25    
17Ohaaki Deep Drilling Geothermal504206-96-9200420041262.52-30 0M
18Coal Seam Methane - Various sites - 2003101606-96-9200420032  8-10    
19Poihipi Geothermal - steam interconnect2823060 ?6-12200820041261.52-3M 0L
20Gas Turbines (Marsden A) 2004+200219-43812-186-12200520041see App A 15-25    
21Refinery Cogeneration2015012-1812200520042251.57LLLM
22Kawerau Wellhead Geothermal108036 ?6-12200620042330.86M  M ?
23Other Wellhead Geothermal129036 ?6-122006200433315-6H ?L
24Kawerau Binary Geothermal5401212200520041130.32-3L  +
25Rotokawa wellhead Geothermal54036 ?12200620042220.45-6M  L
26Rotokawa bottoming Geothermal320121220052004160.23L  0
27Mokai bottoming Geothermal8601812200520042160.63    
28Ohaaki bottoming Geothermal10801212200520041200.93L 00
29Tararua Wind Farm361251414200420041602.46LLLL
30Wairakei Binary Geothermal151201212200420041351.12-30 0+
31Hau Nui Wind Farm - expansion 517181820052005180.26LLLL
32Reporoa Geothermal40330> 60 ?12-4820122005412534-5H ?L
33Coal Seam Methane - Various sites - 2004+6080018-2418-24200520042  6    
34Ngawha Geothermal2016060?1820122005463-721.23-5HLLM
35Kawerau Central Geothermal2017036 ?18200720053651.33MLLM ?
36Mokai I expansion Geothermal3025018182005200511021.530LML
37Tauhara Geothermal15120-1601818200520051711.63-40L0H
38Kiwi Dairies (cogen)4032024242005200516036LHHL
39Kiwi Dairies (peaker)4035-7024242005200524019LHHL
40Kapuni1580 -160242420052005225-501-37-10LHHL
41SI - Wind Farm60400302420062005110046LLLL
42Manawatu Wind Farm9055030242006200511405.66LLLL
43Tekapo B Upgrade2050n/a242005200511015LLLL
44Manapouri Discharge + Uprate100100480200720051000LL0L
45Huntly E3P40029802424200520053500 6 HLM
46Hawea 30MW scheme301202424200520051900.45LLLL
47TCC 2 or Otahuhu "C"40029803636200620063500 6 HMM
48Wairau Valley Hydro100500-55042 20062006330016MLLL
49Rotokawa II Geothermal7562048 ?3620102006319553-4MLLM
50Pukaki - Hydro4420363620062006210016.5LLML
51Dobson Hydro5727048362008200731700.86.5MLLL
52Putauaki Geothermal75420-83060 ?36-48200820073150-2554-83-5MLLM
53Ngatamariki Geothermal75420-830> 60 ?48201220075125-2304-62-5HLMM
54Hawea 60MW scheme6031548?482008200721600.66.5MLML
55Aqua Stage 1262160060 2009200936002-35MLML
56Luggate265127772 20102008266325-6MLML
57Queensbury220106084 20102008155025-6MLML
58Aqua Stage 2262160090 2012201236002-35MLML

Erratum: Amendments to Power Generation Summary Table

[Added 1 March 2004]

Ref.OpportunityPotential
Capacity
(MW)
Ann.
Output10
(GWh)
6Mangahao Hydro (committed)422
41SI Wind Farm60236
42Manawatu Wind Farm90354
50Pukaki44120
56Luggate90435
57Queensbury180870

6Assumes gas availability.

7Assumes gas availability.

8For thermal plant Annual Output (GWh) assumes load factors of 10-20%.

9Costs per kWh take into account typical load factors for non-thermal plant (hydro, geothermal and wind). For thermal plant, where the load factors is some cases may be very low (but cannot realistically be predicted) for peaking plant, they take into account fuel and O&M costs but assume the capital cost is recovered at 10% per annum. For the non thermal plant, the costs per kWh are the long term prices at which the projects are considered to be viable. The do therefore take into account project financing and profit, do not include up-front establishment costs.

10For thermal plant Annual Output (GWh) assumes load factors of 10-20%.



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