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The following table summarises the main findings of the report and lists generation opportunities that have been identified in the course of this study in terms of:

• Capacity (MW)
• Estimated Annual Output (GWh)
• Year On Line with and without constraints imposed by RMA Process
• Ease of Establishment (index 1 to 5)
• Estimated Capital Cost $m
• Estimated Operating & Maintenance Cost (p.a. $m)
• Estimated Cost of delivered energy (c/kWh)
• Relative Impact of Constraints

The cost estimates contained in the following table are generic, based on typical industry indices and should not be regarded as precise. The costs given are in 2003 New Zealand dollars, at a NZ/US$ exchange rate of 0.55, and provide a measure of comparative costs of different generation options and reflect certain assumptions.

Costs per kWh take into account typical load factors for non-thermal plant (hydro, geothermal and wind). For thermal plant, where the load factors is some cases may be very low for peaking plant (but cannot realistically be predicted), they take into account fuel and O&M costs but just assume the capital cost is recovered at 10% per annum without taking into account financing costs. For the non-thermal plant, the costs per kWh are the long term prices at which the projects are considered to be viable. They do therefore take into account project financing and profit, but, as stated above, do not include up-front establishment costs, which could be significant in a full financial analysis. Further details regarding the assumptions made in establishing these costs are included in Appendix B of this report.

The summary table also includes a relative assessment of applicable constraints on a Low/Medium/High basis relating to:

• The Resource Management Act process
• Fuel/Energy Resource constraints
• Transmission constraints
• Environmental constraints

The most encouraging aspect is that the existence of adequate energy resources in New Zealand is not a constraint on achieving sufficient capacity to provide security in the short term, with environmental impacts that most New Zealanders would consider to be acceptable, when compared with the alternatives.

At the present time, there are existing and potential constraints in the high voltage transmission system that are obstacles to new generation in some areas of the country. These are discussed further in Section 4 of the report.

Air quality and noise are issues for any generation close to urban areas.

The progress of many proposed geothermal and hydro development projects is constrained by the consent process. In many cases, the assessed environmental impact of these projects is low.

Summary

Opportunity

Erratum: Amendments to Power Generation Summary Table

[Added 1 March 2004]

¹Assumes gas availability.

²For thermal plant Annual Output (GWh) assumes load factors of 10-20%.

³Costs per kWh take into account typical load factors for non-thermal plant (hydro, geothermal and wind). For thermal plant, where the load factors is some cases may be very low (but cannot realistically be predicted) for peaking plant, they take into account fuel and O&M costs but assume the capital cost is recovered at 10% per annum. For the non thermal plant, the costs per kWh are the long term prices at which the projects are considered to be viable. The do therefore take into account project financing and profit, do not include up-front establishment costs.

⁴For thermal plant Annual Output (GWh) assumes load factors of 10-20%.