Executive Summary
This report outlines prospects for additional electricity generation in New Zealand over the next three or four years. It identifies generation which could be brought on line within a few months and outlines what could be available over the next three or four years.
The report collates publicly available information on a number of projects, describes what could be achieved by importing readily available generating plant from overseas, and also adds a number of projects which have not previously been made public.
As far as possible, the report identifies environmental and other constraints that could delay commissioning beyond the time needed from a purely technical point of view. In many cases the environmental effects of the schemes would be quite minor (when compared with the alternatives) but this does not necessarily guarantee that they would proceed rapidly through the current regulatory process.
The report identifies several hundred megawatts (MW) of generation capacity that could be brought on line within six months. It identifies many gas turbine or diesel generators that could be imported from overseas within a few months. There is also about 80MW of diesel generation available from existing emergency generators in the main centres.
There are also several opportunities for increasing generation from indigenous resources. These include gas engines operating on gas from oil and gas wells that are too small and too far away from the main gas pipelines to justify construction of a new pipeline. It would be very easy to install gas engines at the wellhead and connect them to the local power system. A similar opportunity is provided by methane from coal seams, which could also support additional electrical generation. Drilling for these resources is already underway and the infrastructure is relatively simple. There is also some potential for increasing the output from geothermal stations in a very short time.
In a longer time frame, there are several geothermal projects that could deliver several hundred MW of base load generation. Most of these are based on existing proven wells and geothermal fields and have not proceeded up until now because of regulatory and ownership uncertainties combined with the uncertainties of the electricity market. With a small amount of encouragement, these could proceed rapidly and would be very valuable. The report discusses the concept of increasing the installed capacity at geothermal stations so that they can be used for load following and backing up hydro storage in dry years, (hydro firming) while retaining the same long term depletion rate of the resource. This could reduce or eliminate the need for using coal-fired power stations for hydro firming. Further study is needed to determine the overall economics and evaluate the environmental trade-offs.
We have also identified some hydropower schemes and wind power projects that would be useful. During the course of the study, it has become apparent that a New Zealand wide evaluation of hydropower resources is needed if the best use is to be made of this valuable renewable resource. Development is proceeding on an ad hoc basis. We do not know which schemes are the most beneficial to New Zealand as a whole and hence we cannot be sure that the most beneficial schemes are being developed.
Overall, the review has identified a large number of potential schemes which could go a long way towards eliminating any risk of power shortages over the next four or five years. Most of the schemes provide base load or mid range generation that would reduce the need for additional reserve dry year generation.
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