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Appendix I: Economic Modelling Results


National Cost Benefit Analysis of Proposals to Take Water from the Waitaki River: Final Report

Sinclair Knight Merz
[ Last Updated 22 December 2005 ]


I.1 Project Aqua, No Irrigation Development

Table 55: Present Value of Project Aqua Under Base Assumptions (7.5%, 30 Years)
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$0.0m$0.0m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $2919.4m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure$0.0m
On-Farm Transition$0.0m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Emissions Costs$0.0m
Lost Generation Capacity$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Costs $2590.2m
Net Present Value$329.1m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $701.4m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $149.3m

I.2 Irrigation Development, No Project Aqua

Table 56: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, All Schemes
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$1078.9m$1078.9m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $1078.9m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$258.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure$136.8m
On-Farm Transition$259.6m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$105.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$29.7m
Lost Generation Capacity$166.8m$956.4m
Present Value of Costs $956.4m
Net Present Value$122.5m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $351.2m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$23.1m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (Optimistic Case 124,250ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 57: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Schemes if NPV (5%,30yrs) > 0
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$767.7m$767.7m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $767.7m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$197.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$87.0m
On-Farm Transition$188.8m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$72.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$18.3m
Lost Generation Capacity$13.8m$578.0m
Present Value of Costs $578.0m
Net Present Value$189.8m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $408.4m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $58.6m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (76,250ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.3 Irrigation Development and Project Aqua

Table 58: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, All Schemes
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$1078.9m$1078.9m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $3998.2m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$258.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure$136.8m
On-Farm Transition$259.6m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$105.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$29.7m
Lost Generation Capacity$449.3m$1238.8m
Present Value of Costs $3829.0m
Net Present Value$169.2m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $625.3m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$85.2m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (Optimistic Case 124,250ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 59: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Schemes if NPV (5%,30yrs) > 0
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$767.7m$767.7m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $3687.1m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$197.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$87.0m
On-Farm Transition$188.8m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$72.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$18.3m
Lost Generation Capacity$205.2m$769.4m
Present Value of Costs $3359.6m
Net Present Value$327.4m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $820.6m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $64.5m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (76,250 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.4 Irrigation Development (Above Tekapo)

Table 60: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$226.8m$226.8m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $226.8m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$23.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$32.6m
On-Farm Transition$56.7m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$12.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$6.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$111.5m$244.0m
Present Value of Costs $244.0m
Net Present Value-$17.1m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) -$2.9m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$32.3m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (30,000 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 61: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation Above Tekapo, Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$226.8m$226.8m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $3146.1m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$23.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$32.6m
On-Farm Transition$56.7m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$12.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$6.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$161.7m$295.1m
Present Value of Costs $2885.3m
Net Present Value$260.8m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $620.5m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $78.8m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (30,000 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.5 Irrigation Development (Above Ohau)

Table 62: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$49.1m$49.1m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $49.1m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$12.3m
On-Farm Infrastructure$9.9m
On-Farm Transition$8.2m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$10.4m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$2.6m
Lost Generation Capacity$36.2m$79.7m
Present Value of Costs $79.7m
Net Present Value-$30.6m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) -$38.0m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$28.2m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (10,000 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs ($200/ha/annum), Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 63: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$49.1m$49.1m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $2968.4m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$12.3m
On-Farm Infrastructure$9.9m
On-Farm Transition$8.2m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$10.4m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$2.6m
Lost Generation Capacity$57.9m$101.4m
Present Value of Costs $2691.6m
Net Present Value$276.5m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $630.3m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $104.9m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (10,000 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs ($200/ha/annum), Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.6 Irrigation Development (Above Benmore)

Table 64: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$11.1m$11.1m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $11.1m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$2.5m
On-Farm Infrastructure$2.0m
On-Farm Transition$1.6m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$4.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.5m
Lost Generation Capacity$3.9m$14.7m
Present Value of Costs $14.7m
Net Present Value-$3.6m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) -$3.7m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$3.8m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (2,000 ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs ($200/ha/annum), Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 65: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$11.1m$11.1m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $2930.4m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$2.5m
On-Farm Infrastructure$2.0m
On-Farm Transition$1.6m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$4.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.5m
Lost Generation Capacity$9.0m$19.8m
Present Value of Costs $2610.0m
Net Present Value$320.4m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $689.8m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $141.7m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (2,000ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs ($200/ha/annum), Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.7 Irrigation Development (Below Waitaki Dam)

Table 66: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$491.2m$491.2m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $491.2m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$80.1m
On-Farm Infrastructure$53.1m
On-Farm Transition$121.3m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$85.1m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$10.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$0.0m$350.4m
Present Value of Costs $350.4m
Net Present Value$140.8m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $269.1m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $62.7m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (44,500ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 67: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua and No Integration
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$491.2m$491.2m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $3410.5m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$80.1m
On-Farm Infrastructure$53.1m
On-Farm Transition$121.3m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$85.1m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$10.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$108.9m$459.3m
Present Value of Costs $3049.5m
Net Present Value$361.0m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $806.0m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $130.4m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (44,500ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha for diversions outside scheme development
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 68: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, Project Aqua and Integration
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2063.7m
Operations And Maintenance$510.2m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$104.6m
Incremental Fuel Cost$237.2m$2915.6m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$491.2m$491.2m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$3.7m$3.7m
Present Value of Benefits $3410.5m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$2099.3m
Operations And Maintenance$451.4m
Incremental Transmission Costs$16.8m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$20.2m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.9m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$1.7m$2590.2m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$80.1m
On-Farm Infrastructure$53.1m
On-Farm Transition$121.3m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$66.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$10.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$88.4m$420.3m
Present Value of Costs $3010.5m
Net Present Value$400.0m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $862.2m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $159.7m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (44,500ha)
  • Mid Point Irrigation Demands
  • Off-Farm Supply Capital Investment: $1500/ha
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound O&M Costs, Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

I.8 Sensitivity Tests: Irrigation Development (Above Tekapo)

Table 69: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output$226.8m$226.8m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $226.8m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$23.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$32.6m
On-Farm Transition$56.7m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$12.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$6.9m
Lost Generation Capacity (SENSITIVITY ASSUMPTION)$428.1m$560.5m
Present Value of Costs $560.5m
Net Present Value-$333.7m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) -$478.9m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) -$269.9m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Mid Point Agricultural Returns (30,000ha)
  • Annualised Irrigation Demand: 15 Cumecs
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Table 70: Net Present Value (7.5%, 30 Years) of Irrigation, No Project Aqua Installed
Item$$
Benefits 
Investment Avoided With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$0.0m
Incremental Fuel Cost$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Sector Expansion 
Increased Agricultural Output (SENSITIVITY ASSUMPTION) $341.5m$341.5m
Economy Wide Benefits 
Reduced Electricity Charges$0.0m$0.0m
Present Value of Benefits $341.5m
Costs 
Electricity Generation Investment With Project Aqua 
Capital Expenditure$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance$0.0m
Incremental Transmission Costs$0.0m
Reserve Plant$0.0m
Agricultural Output Contraction$0.0m
On-Farm Infrastructure - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m
Operations And Maintenance - Renew/Mitigate$0.0m$0.0m
Irrigation Development Investment 
Off-Farm Infrastructure$23.7m
On-Farm Infrastructure$32.6m
On-Farm Transition$56.7m
Operations and Maintenance Cost$12.5m
Incremental Greenhouse Gas Emission Cost$6.9m
Lost Generation Capacity$111.5m$244.0m
Present Value of Costs $244.0m
Net Present Value$97.5m
Net Present Value (5.0%, 30 years) $151.4m
Net Present Value (10.0%, 30 years) $54.4m

Major Irrigation Assumptions:

  • Upper Bound Agricultural Returns - ADJUSTED See next dot point (30,000ha)
  • Irrigated Arable ($2,000/ha), Irrigated Dairy Support ($1,600/ha)
  • Lower Bound On Farm Capital Estimates
  • Lower Bound Irrigation Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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