Appendix C: Future Unit Costs

Fossil Fuel Electricity Generating Costs

East Harbour Management Services

[ Last Updated 19 December 2005 ]

Tables C1 to C5 give estimated capital costs and efficiencies for 2003, 2012 and 2025 for the various technologies. Tables C6 to C17 give estimated unit electricity costs for 2003, 2012 and 2025. In these tables the expected capital costs and efficiencies from Tables C1 to C5 have been used, but the fuel and O&M costs used are the same as those for the 2003 cases.

It should be noted that efficiencies have been given to one decimal place, not to indicate that degree of precision, but to differentiate between the values of various scenarios and years.

Table C1: Supercritical Pulverized Coal
	Capital Cost $/kW			Efficiency %
	Technology Uptake			Technology Uptake
Year	Low	Expected	High	Low	Expected	High
2003	1850	1850	1850	38.3	38.3	38.3
2012	1800	1800	1800	39.9	39.9	39.9
2025	1730	1730	1730	40.1	40.1	40.1

Figure C1a: Supercritical Pulverized Coal showing Capital Cost

Figure C1b: Supercritical Pulverized Coal showing Efficiency

Table C2: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
	Capital Cost $/kW			Efficiency %
	Technology Uptake			Technology Uptake
Year	Low	Expected	High	Low	Expected	High
2003	830	830	830	45.8	45.8	45.8
2012	820	820	820	48.5	48.5	48.5
2025	790	790	790	48.7	48.7	48.7

Figure C2a: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine showing Capital Cost

Figure C2b: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine showing Efficiency

Table C3: Combined Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine
	Capital Cost $/kW			Efficiency %
	Technology Uptake			Technology Uptake
Year	Low	Expected	High	Low	Expected	High
2003	940	940	940	49.2	49.2	49.2
2012	940	900	890	49.8	53.4	62.3
2025	940	830	810	49.8	53.7	68.8

Figure C3a: Combined Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine showing Capital Cost

Figure C3b: Combined Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine showing Efficiency

Table C4: Open Cycle Gas Turbine
	Capital Cost $/kW			Efficiency %
	Technology Uptake			Technology Uptake
Year	Low	Expected	High	Low	Expected	High
2003	630	630	630	31.4	31.4	31.4
2012	630	620	620	31.4	32.7	32.7
2025	630	600	600	31.4	32.7	32.7

Figure C4a: Open Cycle Gas Turbine showing Capital Cost

Figure C4b: Open Cycle Gas Turbine showing Efficiency

Table C5: Open Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine
	Capital Cost $/kW			Efficiency %
	Technology Uptake			Technology Uptake
Year	Low	Expected	High	Low	Expected	High
2003	720	720	20	36.7	36.7	36.7
2012	710	660	640	37.2	39.9	51.2
2025	710	590	570	37.2	39.9	51.2

Figure C5a: Open Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine showing Capital Cost

Figure C5b: Open Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine showing Efficiency

Table C6: 2003 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.0	3.4	0.4	0.2	4.9
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.9	3.9	0.4	0.2	5.3
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.7	4.9	0.5	0.1	6.2
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	2.0	3.3	0.9	0.4	6.6
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	5.5	0.6	0.1	6.8

Table C7: 2003 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.0	4.0	0.4	0.2	5.6
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.9	4.6	0.4	0.2	6.1
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	230	2.0	3.8	0.9	0.4	7.1
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	160	0.7	5.9	0.5	0.1	7.2
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	6.6	0.6	0.1	7.9

Table C8: 2003 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.4	3.4	0.4	0.4	5.6
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.3	3.9	0.4	0.3	5.9
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	1.0	4.9	0.5	0.3	6.6
Open cycle gas turbine	160	0.9	5.5	0.6	0.2	7.2
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	500	3.1	3.3	0.9	0.9	8.2

Table C9: 2003 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.4	4.0	0.4	0.4	6.2
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.3	4.6	0.4	0.3	6.6
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	1.0	5.9	0.5	0.3	7.6
Open cycle gas turbine	160	0.9	6.6	0.6	0.2	8.3
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	500	3.1	3.8	0.9	0.9	8.6

Table C10: 2012 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	0.9	3.4	0.4	0.2	4.8
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.8	3.7	0.4	0.2	5.1
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.7	4.5	0.5	0.1	5.8
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	1.9	3.2	0.9	0.4	6.4
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	5.5	0.6	0.1	6.8

Table C11: 2012 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	0.9	4.0	0.4	0.2	5.5
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.8	4.5	0.4	0.2	5.9
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.7	5.4	0.5	0.1	6.7
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	1.9	3.6	0.9	0.4	6.9
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	6.6	0.6	0.1	7.9

Table C12: 2012 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.4	3.4	0.4	0.4	5.5
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.2	3.7	0.4	0.3	5.7
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.9	4.5	0.5	0.2	6.1
Open cycle gas turbine	160	0.9	5.5	0.6	0.2	7.2
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	500	3.0	3.2	0.9	0.9	7.9

Table C13: 2012 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.4	4.0	0.4	0.4	6.1
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.2	4.5	0.4	0.3	6.5
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.9	5.4	0.5	0.2	7.0
Open cycle gas turbine	160	0.9	6.6	0.6	0.2	8.3
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	500	3.0	3.6	0.9	0.9	8.4

Table C14: 2025 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	0.9	3.4	0.4	0.2	4.8
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.8	3.7	0.4	0.2	5.1
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.6	4.5	0.5	0.1	5.7
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	1.9	3.2	0.9	0.4	6.3
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	5.5	0.6	0.1	6.8

Table C15: 2025 Electricity Costs (5% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	0.9	4.0	0.4	0.2	5.4
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	0.8	4.4	0.4	0.2	5.8
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.6	5.4	0.5	0.1	6.6
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	1.9	3.6	0.9	0.4	6.8
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.6	6.6	0.6	0.1	7.9

Table C16: 2025 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $5.00/GJ Gas, $3.50/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.3	3.4	0.4	0.3	5.3
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.2	3.7	0.4	0.3	5.6
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.8	4.5	0.5	0.2	6.0
Open cycle gas turbine	160	0.8	5.5	0.6	0.2	7.2
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	500	2.9	3.2	0.9	0.9	7.8

Table C17: 2025 Electricity Costs (10% Discount Rate, 20 Year Life, $6.00/GJ Gas, $4.00/GJ Bituminous Coal, 90% Load Factor)
Technology	MW	Cost c/kWh
Technology	MW	Capital	Fuel	O&M	Other	Total
Combined cycle advanced gas turbine	400	1.3	4.0	0.4	0.3	6.0
Combined cycle gas turbine	250	1.2	4.4	0.4	0.3	6.4
Open cycle advanced gas turbine	230	0.8	5.4	0.5	0.2	6.9
Bituminous supercritical with FGD	160	2.9	3.6	0.9	0.9	8.2
Open cycle gas turbine	500	0.8	6.6	0.6	0.2	8.3

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Printed: 26/11/2009