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Tourism forecasts

Since 1999, the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has produced forecasts annually for a seven-year projection period. The current forecasts cover the period to 2020. The Ministry forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to support the tourism sector and government in decision making and planning.

MBIE commissioned the NZIER to prepare the forecasts using a best practice tourism forecasting model combining macro-economic and socio-demographic data and expert judgment. The forecasts are based on two broad types of drivers: cyclical drivers relating to short term income, price and exchange rate effects; and longer term structural drivers that relate to demographic shifts over time. Confidence intervals have been used to quantify uncertainty and risk assumptions tested by creating two scenarios or ‘what-if’ questions.


2014-2020 Forecasts

The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has updated its tourism forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2014-2020 period. The forecasts suggest that the long term outlook is positive.

Read more about 2014-2020 Forecasts

About the tourism forecasts

Read about the methodology and data sources used by NZIER to prepare the tourism forecasts.

Read more about About the tourism forecasts

Previous forecasts

Access previous national and regional forecasts from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s tourism forecasting.

Read more about Previous forecasts


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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand License.


Last updated 10 February 2015

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Upcoming scheduled tourism survey releases.