Document Actions

Tourism forecasts

Since 1999, the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has produced forecasts annually for a seven-year projection period. The current forecasts cover the period to 2021. The forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to support the tourism sector and government in decision making and planning.

MBIE commissioned the NZIER to prepare the forecasts using a best practice tourism forecasting model combining macro-economic and socio-demographic data and expert judgment. The forecasts are based on two broad types of drivers: cyclical drivers relating to short term income, price and exchange rate effects; and longer term structural drivers that relate to demographic shifts over time.

Interactive web tool

This year, MBIE has launched an interactive web tool for users to explore the forecasts results for key markets.

Read more about Interactive web tool

2015-2021 Forecasts

MBIE has updated its tourism forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2015-2021 period. This year, MBIE has also introduced arrivals forecasts for emerging markets, India and Indonesia.

Read more about 2015-2021 Forecasts

Market forecast summaries

This year, MBIE have also provided one-page forecast summaries for each market.

Read more about Market forecast summaries

About the tourism forecasts

Read about the methodology and data sources used by NZIER to prepare the tourism forecasts.

Read more about About the tourism forecasts

Previous forecasts

Access previous national and regional forecasts from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s tourism forecasting.

Read more about Previous forecasts


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand License.


Last updated 18 May 2015

[icon] Blue at sign.  Subscribe

Join our mailing list to receive the latest Tourism data released by MBIE.

[link to subscription form].


To receive alerts on:

International travel and migration (including international visitor arrivals)

Commercial accommodation monitor (Accommodation survey)

please use the subscription page on the Statistics New Zealand website

[icon] RSS feeds.  RSS feeds

Keep up to date with the latest content by subscribing to our RSS feeds.


[icon] Calendar.  Data release

Upcoming scheduled tourism survey releases.