Tourism forecasts 2012-2018

Since 1999, the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has produced forecasts annually for a seven-year projection period. The current forecasts cover the period to 2018. The Ministry forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to support the tourism sector and government in decision making and planning.

The 2012 forecasts adopt a different method to previous years, where a consensus approach was used. This year, MBIE commissioned the NZIER to prepare forecasts using a best practice tourism forecasting model combining macro-economic and socio-demographic data and expert judgment. The forecasts are based on two broad types of drivers: cyclical drivers relating to short term income, price and exchange rate effects; and longer term structural drivers that relate to demographic shifts over time. Confidence intervals have been used to quantify uncertainty and risk assumptions tested by creating two scenarios or ‘what-if’ questions. The resulting econometric model is robust and will be used, with new data, to generate forecasts for the next two years.

• New Zealand’s tourism sector outlook: Forecasts for 2012-2018 [953 KB PDF]