Since 1999, the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has produced forecasts annually for a seven-year projection period. The current forecasts cover the period to 2021. The forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to support the tourism sector and government in decision making and planning.
MBIE commissioned the NZIER to prepare the forecasts using a best practice tourism forecasting model combining macro-economic and socio-demographic data and expert judgment. The forecasts are based on two broad types of drivers: cyclical drivers relating to short term income, price and exchange rate effects; and longer term structural drivers that relate to demographic shifts over time.
This year, MBIE has launched an interactive web tool for users to explore the forecasts results for key markets.
MBIE has updated its tourism forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2015-2021 period. This year, MBIE has also introduced arrivals forecasts for emerging markets, India and Indonesia.
This year, MBIE have also provided one-page forecast summaries for each market.
Read about the methodology and data sources used by NZIER to prepare the tourism forecasts.
Access previous national and regional forecasts from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s tourism forecasting.
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