New Zealand's Energy Outlook

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[image] Energy Outlook 2011

New Zealand’s Energy Outlook 2011 presents updated projections of New Zealand’s future energy supply, demand, prices and greenhouse gas emissions. These projections are intended to inform the energy debate.

This article updates the analysis presented in the Energy Outlook 2010, incorporating new and revised energy data as well as updated modelling assumptions and methods.

The Reference Scenario provides a benchmark for comparisons in the Sensitivity Analysis. The Reference Scenario is not our expectation of what is going to happen. Rather, it assumes a continuation of the broad trends of key economic drivers and policy settings, as well as current technologies and fuel choices. The Reference Scenario assumes the continuation of enacted government policies, such as the emissions trading scheme. Detailed assumptions are discussed at the end of this article.

The Sensitivity Analysis, the second part of this article, explores the sensitivity of the Reference Scenario to the key macroeconomic variables of economic growth (GDP), exchange rate, emissions price and oil price.

This article is supported by detailed data tables available on the Ministry of Economic Development website and the Technical Guide for Energy Outlook, a reference document that explains the modelling methodology used.

In 2011 the demand models used to forecast New Zealand’s Energy Outlook were reviewed. Also, cost assumptions used for electricity supply forecasting and coal prices used in the demand models were updated. For the detailed reports on these methodology and assumption updates see Technical Papers.

Transport modelling for the Energy Outlook 2011 was a joint exercise between the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Transport.