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Electricity demand and generation scenarios

Independent demand and generation scenarios are a key reference point for preparing and assessing major grid investment proposals by Transpower. Transpower will be required to use the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) when developing major capital expenditure proposals.

In 2012, the Ministry consulted on the EDGS process and assumptions through the discussion paper, Introducing the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios.

Submissions and cross-submissions were received on the discussion paper.

The written submission process was followed in September 2012 with a stakeholder workshop to discuss issues raised in the submission process.

Following the workshop we started collating assumptions, and began the modelling process for the Draft EDGS. This process in on-going and has taken considerably longer than was originally estimated.

In June 2013, the Ministry will release New Zealand’s Energy Outlook: Electricity Insight. While this is a separate project to the EDGS, they share the same scenarios and sensitivities and will be used to explain the “story” for each scenario and sensitivity.

In September or October 2013, we intend to release more detailed assumptions, scenarios and projections, including peak demand forecasts (which are not included in the Energy Outlook articles) and begin the formal consultation period for the Draft EDGS. The formal consultation process will include an opportunity for submissions and cross submission on the Draft EDGS results.

 If you wish to be included in our EDGS contact list please email: EDGS@med.govt.nz.


Background information

The 2009 Ministerial Review of Electricity Market Performance proposed measures to improve the performance of the electricity market, its institutions and its governance. As a result, on 1 November 2010, the Electricity Commission was disestablished with most of its functions being transferred to the new Electricity Authority.

Responsibility for approving Transpower’s grid expenditure plans transferred to the Commerce Commission and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment is now responsible for preparing demand and generation scenarios to feed into this process. The 2012 Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) will replace the demand and generation scenarios contained in the 2010 Statement of Opportunities (SOO) (produced by the Electricity Commission).

Transpower proposals are subject to Commerce Commission approval under the Transpower Capital Expenditure Input Methodology (Capex IM), which was finalised in January 2012.


Relevant links

Transpower Capital Expenditure Input Methodology (Capex IM)

Statement of Opportunities (SOO) – archive


Feedback and discussion welcomed

In addition to the formal engagement process, the Ministry welcomes stakeholder feedback at any time. If you would like to contact us, please email: EDGS@med.govt.nz.


Last updated 13 June 2013