The Ministry’s energy modelling work programme produces projections of future energy supply, demand, prices and emissions. This work provides the background that policymakers, potential investors, stakeholders, and all New Zealanders need to understand the energy issues facing New Zealand.
When decisions are made in the energy industry, they tend to have a long-lasting impact. A plant, a well, or a mine developed today is likely to operate for several decades. In the same way the environmental impact of the decisions we make on energy – such as climate change – will play out over many decades.
As a result the Ministry’s core modelling publication, New Zealand’s Energy Outlook takes a long term view, currently focusing at the year 2030.
For further information on the Energy Outlook, and other core energy modelling releases (including the new Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios) please follow the links below. See Technical papers for information on the Ministry’s energy modelling approach and papers that inform work undertaken by the Energy Information and Modelling Team.
Independent demand and generation scenarios are a key reference point for preparing and assessing major grid investment proposals by Transpower. Transpower will be required to use the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) when developing major capital expenditure proposals.
This model shows the estimated costs of new generation projects based on Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC), and the quantity of new generation required to meet a particular level of future demand growth.
As the first article in a new Energy Outlook series we present New Zealand’s Energy Outlook, Electricity Insight. This new article explores the long term future for electricity supply and demand in New Zealand using scenario and sensitivity analysis.
Each year the Ministry releases a full set of energy sector wide Reference Scenario projections of energy supply, demand, and emissions. As well as this, we present analysis on the sensitivity of the Reference Scenario to changes in key assumptions.
The Ministry publishes actual and projected energy sector emissions for the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (2008 to 2012).
The Ministry is lead agency to maintain and evolve a coordinated, whole-of-government strategy on energy information, analysis and modelling.